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At a dinner last week, someone asked if I thought there were more earthquakes now than at any time in the past and, if so, what I thought that might imply. The correlation being that one of the signs of the end times was “earthquakes in different places.”
I first read that passage (Bible, Mark 13:8) when I was a boy. The venerable King James Version translates (from the original Greek) “earthquakes in divers places.” What was I to think? Of course, we should look for earthquakes under the ocean, where divers go.
Silly boy, this was just the King’s English saying “diverse places,“ or better, “different or various places.”
So, now at the dinner, I am asked, “Are there more earthquakes now than in the past?” The problem with the past is that John Milne had not yet invented the seismograph, so Aristotle did not have one and Alexander the Great could not carry one around measuring the seismic activity of every tiny city he slaughtered. Plus, the world was not as populated so the density of measurements would be questionable. As often is the case, perhaps I was aiming too high.
I lowered my sights and decided to investigate the seismic activity over the last 41 years.
Earthquakes are classified according to their magnitude. Charles Richter (1900-1985) developed the Richter Scale in 1935. In this logarithmic measurement, each whole number represents 10 times the magnitude of the number prior. Thus, an earthquake of magnitude 6 has ten times the shaking amplitude of an earthquake of magnitude 5. An earthquake of magnitude 7 has ten times the shaking amplitude of an earthquake of magnitude 6, and so on. There is no defined upper bound; I guess the earth could bulge enharmonically and wobble out of orbit.
In practical terms, what are the Richter magnitudes?
Richter 5.0–5.9: Major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.
Richter 6.0–6.9: Destructive damage over areas up to about 50 miles radius.
Richter 7:0–7.9: Serious damage over areas 50 -100 miles radius.
Richter 8.0–8.9: Serious damage over areas a hundred miles or so in radius.
Richter 9.0–9.9: Devastating damage over areas as much as a thousand miles in radius.
Richter 10.0-beyond: Never recorded.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) monitors and records earthquakes over the entire earth. I took their data and plotted it. The problem is how far back do you trust the data for the entire earth? I was unwilling to go back farther than about 1970 because I believed the global recording would not be reliable – sensors too far apart, for example.
It seemed pointless to be concerned about earthquakes less than 5.0 on the Richter scale as these would be minor disturbances and impossible to track globally.
Every year there is globally no more than one (if any) earthquake that measures 8.0-9.9 or greater. Thus, it would be impossible to tell if those are increasing because so few occur, anyway.
Thus, we should investigate whether the number of earthquakes of Richter magnitude 5.0-8.9 have been increasing since 1970.
Examine the chart where I plot the earthquakes reported globally since 1970 that had a Richter magnitude 7.0-8.9. From the data, it would be difficult to make any kind of statistical argument that the rate of seismic activity had increased over the last 41 years. Statistically, the data look flat.
However, when I plotted the number of earthquakes across the world with Richter magnitude 6.0-6.9, then those clearly have increased in number.
A plot of the earthquakes with Richter magnitude 5.0-5.9 shows the same trend.
Are we on to something? It looks like the number of earthquakes since 1970 has increased almost two-fold.
The question arises. Has there been an actual increase in the number of incidents greater than 5.0 on the Richter Scale, or do the data simply show an increase in our coverage and in our ability to detect and record global seismic activity? Remember, a Richter magnitude of 5.0-7.9 is still pretty local.
I had an idea for how to check this. It would seem that if the number of earthquakes in the US also shows an increase since 1970, then one has an argument for believing the world-wide data are real and not just an artifact of more sensitive techniques and better global coverage. After all, from a geographic point of view, statistically, there should be nothing unique about the US land mass.
Thus, I plotted the total number of US earthquakes of Richter magnitude 5.0-9.9 for just the United States
The data for the US clearly show the number of quakes in the US not to be increasing over the last 41 years.
I hate data like this where you have no solid conclusion. However, the lack of a concomitant increase in US data forces me to conclude that the so-called increase world-wide is just an increase in sensitivity and scope.
The answer? No, the number of global earthquakes has (probably) not been increasing over the last 41 years. (I do not certify my data for end-time prognostications.)
The good news is, I will be the social magnet at the next dinner party. If an innocent dares disclose earthquake curiosity, I am armed and dangerous.