One of the most difficult tasks of any technologist is to accurately predict and forecast research, either for yourself or your oversight group. If your reaction is, “How in the world can I predict research and breakthrough discoveries?” then welcome to the club. Nevertheless, management will exact an answer from someone, from somewhere, through some means, and you are the best and most likely candidate. This impossible task of predicting research is part of every technologist’s job. Whether you are involved in pure research, product development, product enhancement, product improvement, or anything similar, you will face this problem. If your job involves doing anything new, you need to know how to make accurate forecasts. This series will discuss how to accurately and correctly make technology forecasts. Part I lines up the issues.
The Nature of the Business. Every company is owned by someone. In a public company the owners are the stockholders. In a private company, the ownership can be held by an individual or an assortment of investors. All owners have the same requirement; they want and need to make a profit. Otherwise, they will move their resources elsewhere. Money talks.
In a free market (thank God for freedom) there are competitive products. The business owner must plan how to beat the competition. Is it Price? Volume? More efficient products? Better? Faster? More bells and whistles? Elegance? And the list goes on. In the end, the owners put together a plan for how they can achieve a profit on their investment. Now, assuredly, this in done iteratively and with some notion of how to implement the plan, but it is only top level, initially, likely full of holes and distinctly deficient in detail.
After the basic concept is formulated, a knowledgeable team puts together a detailed plan. This plan gets passed down to lower and lower levels of management until it eventually stops at you. “You are the technologist,” they say. “Management needs this information and you are the best person to provide it. Your assigned task is to predict when, how, and at what cost the technology will be developed.”
“You must be crazy!” you respond, certain internally and often externally. “How can I predict research? No one can predict breakthroughs!”
Never mind your opinion, the dirty deed will be done by someone. The forecast will occur because there are other elements of the business awaiting this essential, critical part of the mechanism. Marketing and Sales must be formulated. Value Added Resellers must be put in place. (“What’s a VAR?” you ask.) Manufacturing must tool up. Contracts must be inked. Suppliers must be found. Funding must be acquired.
How much will it cost? How big is it? How fast will it go? Where do we buy parts? What color do we paint it? How big are the wires? How tiny the knobs? How loud the whistles? How “clangy” the bells? (Only Poe uses tintinnabulation.) All those questions are dependent upon your ability to predict research, and your future and the future of those about you depends upon the fidelity and accuracy of that prediction.
Now that you know why you have the problem, and what the problem is, what do you do about it?
The Nature of Research. I use the term “research” in a general sense. By research, I mean the discovery of something previously unknown. Obviously, you maybe in product development, quality enhancement, product improvement, manufacturing, field service, rework, or any number of fields that go by various and sundry titles. Yet, all these have an element of the unknown, the unpredictable, that thing for which you feel forecasting is ludicrous and impossible. You must forecast the creation, development, or production of something previously not done, or at least not done in the manner now required, or at least not done by anyone of which you or your team has knowledge.
Most technologists take the lofty position of refusing to predict. They chastise the messenger and try to pass the buck. This is a mistake of magnitude. Do not do this.
What you do not realize is that someone will make the forecast for you. Your cocky answer might be, “That’s okay. That’s their problem.” No, it is not okay and it is not their problem. It is your problem. Their forecast will affect your credibility, your future, and your career. Their forecast will become your forecast and no amount of naïve, disingenuous denial on your part will change that. Not now and not later. Denial will only label you intractable, an irritant, and the stereotypical wizard technologist. It will be remembered at review time. It will be remembered as an inability, inefficiency, and incapability. Others will be remembered as helping the company, having this capability, and working with the team, but not you. If you ever do want additional resources, increased funding, or even continued funding and unemployment, you will be labeled as someone with limited ability, someone lacking in understanding of how the company works, a niche player at best.
It is in your best interests to pilot your own ship. Your prediction of breakthroughs, with all its caveats and weaknesses, is still the most reliable and the best. It is better to be responsible for your own actions than to be blamed and held accountable for the predictions and forecasts of others. And you will be blamed and held accountable. Make no mistake. No amount of denial on your part will change the perception of management. Perception by others is their reality of you.
But, why make such an issue? There is no need to start a war. No need to draw your sword. This is a manageable task. You can do this. It is possible to make bona fide technology forecasts. Professionals, like myself, do it all the time, with considerable accuracy, good credibility, and in partnership with the rest of the company. You can do it, too. In the upcoming segments, we will provide you with the insights to get you started.