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One of the most difficult tasks any technologist faces is the requirement to accurately forecast and predict research, either for an individual or a group. If your job involves doing anything new, this impossible task of forecasting research will become one of your assignments. But, it’s not impossible and I will show you how to make sound, accurate forecasts that exhibit foresight and establish credibility with management. This Part II discusses the “Weights.”
What is a weight? Consider a simple linear equation like ax + by = z. The coefficients “a” and “b” are the weights. They tell you how much of “a” to put with how much of “b” to get z. If this were a bakery recipe it would say 1/3 cup of sugar, 3 cups of flour, 2 tablespoons of butter, and the like. The “weights” (or measureable quantities, sometimes volume) tell you how much of each ingredient. Clearly, you would have different amounts (weights) for making a pie than for making a donut, for example.
Every decision you make in life has weights. Suppose you are considering a new job. There are components to consider and each of these is “weighed” in your mind. Do you have to relocate? To where? Are there good schools? Can the spouse find employment? What about selling your current house? What about buying another house? Salary? Benefits? What will the working conditions be like? How far is the commute? The list goes on and each factor is weighed in your mind with a relative weight. Salary may not be the heaviest weight. Twice your salary in Antarctica may not be as attractive as your current salary next door.
Suppose you want to purchase an automobile. Used or new? What about color, horsepower, miles per gallon, make, body style, stereo, interior, or wheel covers? All of these have weights in your mind. Some are more important than others. Some are critical. Some do not even make the list of considerations. Something like the transmission may be critical, though. Automatic is essential if you cannot drive a standard. You might consider red, but green cars remind you of your ex spouse. All of these factors have ‘weights” in your decision. The weights are relative measures of importance to the end goal. Some things are weightier than others. Some are absolute like, perhaps, the body style. Maybe you have eight kids so a compact family car is definitely out of the question. But, if it’s a commute car, maybe mileage is the most important. Different decisions have different criteria and these criteria are weighted.
What Weights Occur In Research? If you desire to forecast research, you must first identify the elements – personnel, facilities, salaries, bonuses, equipment, inventory, a break-through technology, reports, tests, validation, or whatever.
Identify the elements in the research. Write them all down. Talk to your team (always an excellent idea.) Talk to your boss (an even better idea). Understand all the factors involved in your forecast. Step one is just to list the factors affecting your research schedule and your forecast.
Organize the Research Factors Into Three Groups. Which factors are under your direct control and which are not? If the president expects a report every Friday, then that is not under your control. If you have vendors and suppliers to consider, that is not always under your control, but in a different way; you can influence them. Hiring may be an issue involving procedures, HR, approvals, and other factors you may not control. If a particular element requires management approval and signatures, then that is not totally under your control. Group all the research factors into three sets, 1.) those factors you control directly, 2.) those factors controlled indirectly by you (your sphere of influence, subcontractors or HR, for example), and 3.) those controlled externally (mostly outside your sphere of influence, like facilities, perhaps).
Prioritize Each List. Prioritize the elements separately in each list as to the importance of each toward the success of the research. In each list, you usually have one or two critical elements, the sine qua non, “without which, not.” In other words, those elements that are so critical that if you do not perform them, you may as well forfeit the game and head for the shower.
Now, if you find more than 2-3 elements, total, that are critical, then something is wrong. You are not thinking about the problem correctly. Maybe you need to examine whether you actually have a research plan. Analyze it again and see if you are being realistic. Ask yourself why each step is so critical. In the end, carve out the 2-3 tasks that truly are critical.
I worked with a gentleman that assessed everything as critical. Everything. Every moment of his day operated in critical mode. He could not eat lunch, he could not go home. It was all too critical. Every request was critical. This person was wrong. Some things are critical and some are not. Learn to recognize, identify, and label correctly.
At this point, you should have three lists with the critical elements marked. Then, within each list, ignoring the critical ones, prioritize the 3-4 elements that are the most important. Put these 3-4 in order of importance. Iterate until you have the top 3-4 items marked in each list. My experience is that most people cannot prioritize beyond about four elements. After that, it gets too mushy. So, don’t worry about it.
Go to the bottom of the list.
At the bottom of the list, prioritize the 3-4 least important items. Most people can do this readily. Now you have the critical elements (f any) in each list, the top 3-4 elements of each list, and the bottom 3-4 elements of each list. Put everything else in-between. Use alphabetical order or whatever it takes, but don’t spend undue time on this part. You cannot decide, anyway.
Assign Weights: Now, assign relative weights to everything except the critical elements. All the weights within each list should add up to 100% (not counting the critical elements). That is, you should have three sets with each adding up to 100% (not including any critical elements). Creating these relative weights is usually difficult because most engineers want to assign high percentages to everything. Then, when they add their total up, they get 2,350% or some meaningless number. If you do not limit the sum, in this case to 100%, then you have not assigned relative weights. You are just telling yourself that everything is of tantamount importance and that life will not even exist on this planet unless every step is completed. Nonsense. Make the weights add up to 100% in each list (sans the critical elements) and then you will know that you are assigning relative weights, as you should be.
In the next segment, we discuss what to do with those weights and how to meld them into an accurate technology forecast.