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Our present discussion is the requirement to predict research outcomes, how much will it cost and when will it be complete. Most technologists throw up their hands (or wave their fists) decrying, “No one knows when a breakthrough will occur! No one can predict research!” “You can’t just say, ‘Invent, you swine!’” Well, that’s not altogether true and whether you wish to or not, whether you should or not, whether you can or not, management will require that someone forecast research. Do you want a budget? Do you want personnel? Do you want to actually have some chance of completing your research tasks? Do you want to keep your job? Then learn to forecast accurately and correctly. This series will show you how to make good, reliable forecasts. Part III continues the discussion by “Measuring the Tasks.”
In Part II, we compiled a list of the essential elements of the research and assigned relative weights as to their importance and criticality. If you are wondering what a “weight” might be, go back and read Part II. Essentially, the weight is a measure you assign to each element in the research. It is a relative measure of the criticality of each task to the final outcome. One or two tasks might be critical, the others rank below that in order of importance to completing the task.
Now, if you collect all the data yourself, you are probably pretty consistent with your collection. In which case you do, especially, need to watch for biases and for things you might overlook or incorrectly minimize. I assign weights with a small team and insist you do the same. That helps eliminate your own biases, or at least points them out. In addition, it starts another essential component, that of getting the team to actually buy into a commitment.
At this point (Parts I and II), you created a high-level list of research and technology tasks and put them in some order of priority, the relative weights. Now, you need to quantify each element on the list as to its magnitude. The magnitude is either how much time the task will take, how much money it will cost, or how many people it will require. For some tasks, the time, cost, and personnel requirements are independent so you must specify all three for that task. Sometimes, because the are dependent, you need specify only one or two. So, let us consider how to treat each task element. Some are straightforward and some are complicated. None are easy. It is best to illustrate by example.
Equipment. If you know what equipment you will need, then you need to determine how long it will take to get the equipment to begin the research. The “magnitude” of the equipment task has two components, time and dollars. You must call the suppliers and get an idea of lead time for delivery. Is the product in stock? Must it be backordered? Is it even available? (You can’t buy frictionless masses or point sources – a technie joke). Obtain no less than three potential suppliers (vendors) for each piece of equipment. At the very least, you must have a backup source, so two are absolutely required. Having three will get you a more realistic idea of how long the delivery will take as well as the cost. Don’t be mislead by companies who promise what they cannot deliver. All three estimates (bids) should be in writing and, theoretically, should be approximately the same. If they are not, query the companies and discover what makes them different. You may be surprised how educated you become. One manufacturer may be able to supply the equipment much faster, but at a higher cost. Depending upon your budget and the requirements, that has to be factored in. At this point, get the information and do not start making decisions. Making decisions at this point is what gets many technologists in trouble. Do not make commitments until all the data is in. There is much more work to do.
Facilities. If you need additional or special facilities, check with your own Facilities Department (if it exists) or (otherwise) outside contractors to see when they can complete the facilities and have them ready to move in. Talk to the person in charge of delivery and determine how realistic their estimate is. Facilities organizations (internal and external) are notorious for missing schedules, not having schedules, or finding reasons why they cannot make their schedules. (It was they who taught me “acts of nature” cover a multitude of sins.) Facilities commitments will never be early and almost always are late. Sometimes critically late. Check for past performance of your group to see how what they actually produced on other, similar jobs. Do this for both internal and external sources. History is the best judge of the future. Ignore promises entirely and go with past performance. Understand their critical factors. Whatever keeps them up at night will keep you up, also. Do not settle for hearsay or seat-of-the-pants. Find out what their contracts require. Read the contracts, yourself. Do not settle for Cliff Notes.
Available, Trained Personnel. If you need to hire or transfer people from another organization to your project, then understand all the issues involved. If you have not even begun the interview process, you need to be very careful. Are the right people even available? Can you afford them? What are the HR rules? Are requisitions even opened up? Will the requisitions be signed? What about moving expenses? Ask questions. Make no assumptions. All of these elements factor into your equation for predicting research. They are part of the magnitude assessment. Getting this information requires that you physically go to the HR department and have a long conversation. Talk to the person in charge. Do not make estimates based on what you think it should take. Make your estimates based on history, commitments, and what it will take.
Subcontractors. If you are expecting part of your research to be done by an outside firm, a subcontractor, then find out their history. Find out their commitment, that is, do they have any “skin” in the game. Who, by name, will they put on your project and for how long a period? What is their written, documented commitment? Since this is done through a contract, read the contract. What does the contract say? You cannot imagine how many technologists take for granted what a subcontractor will do or will not do instead of just reading the actual contract. (When permitted, I personally write the performance criteria, myself.) Technologists will risk an entire project and slow projects down for months rather than spend one hour to actually read the contract. I discuss why this is so in my book, The Persuasive Wizard.
There are many other areas, but this covers some examples to give you the idea.
“You’ve got to be kidding me?” technogists say. It will take me hours and hours to collect all this information. Yes. It is not rocket science, but it is necessary. It is boring for a technologist, and it is mucho time consuming. However, if you have any hope of actually forecasting research, you have to put the time and work in to get the data. “But,” you say, “I cannot take time away from my present tasks to do this.”
Well, here’s the dilemma. You can either spend hours making a correct forecast that will stand the test, get you in a position to actually do the work and complete it, serve you and management well, and make money for your company. Or, you can fiddle your way thorough it and spend months trying to recover from not doing a good job in the first place, make a bad name for yourself, and maybe lose your job or the jobs of others. It’s that simple.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to pick the right solution to that equation, but you will be amazed at how many technologists just will not bring themselves to spend the time required to do it right. Or, they will spend hours guessing and estimating on their own instead of going straight to the source and get the correct information. Don’t let this be you. You cannot become the Persuasive Wizard by wishing it so. It is hard work.
Do not quit until you have quantified the magnitude of every element on your list. When you finish this step, you should have the following:
- A list of all the essential research tasks (usually at a high level – Part I in the series)
- A relative weight determining the criticality of each task. (Part II in the series)
- There will be only 1-3 critical steps
- Ignoring the critical steps, all the weights add to zero
- For each task, determine the magnitude – the time, cost, and personnel required. Get your data from the following:
- Written estimates from suppliers and vendors and past performance on similar jobs
- Written contracts for facilities and subcontractors with past performance on similar jobs
- Specific estimates form departments like HR, Legal, Manufacturing, and any other organizations required.
Note that your opinion is not on the list. You are an expert in technology. When we get to technology, we will ask your opinion. At this point, you ask the experts in their fields.
In the next segment, we discuss additional information needed to make a technology forecast.